Polls showing consistent black voter support for President Trump at levels higher than for recent Republican candidates “could cost” Democrat Joe Biden the election because his backing from the key voting group is less than it was for Hillary Rodham Clinton and former President Obama. In surveys of the black vote, pollster John Zogby pegged black support for Trump at a solid 14%. And for Biden he said that black support between 77%-81%.
“The numbers from likely black voters are nowhere near where they should be as they fall well below 90%,” he said in his new report, “Main St. – K St. IntelligenSEER powered by Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions.”
He added, “This alone could potentially cost Biden the election.”
And in a poll he did for Newsmax, he said, “In 2008 and 2012, Barack Obama won 96% and 93% of the black vote. Hillary Clinton’s 89% to Trump’s 9% victory among blacks was not enough to win the presidency,” adding, “If Trump’s 14% total holds into November, this could hurt the Democratic nominee again in must-win in critical Rust Belt, along with Minnesota, Georgia, and Texas, which Biden hopes to win.”
The black vote has been in focus ever since Trump was elected. He has placed emphasis on programs targeting blacks, boosted employment for African Americans, and featured several at the Republican National Convention.
Some White House insiders said that if Trump can get 11% or more of the black vote, he will win reelection. Several other pollsters have found sustained support for Trump among black voters at levels higher than recent Republicans have had.
Zogby has found unusual pockets of black support for Trump, including younger African Americans. And the addition of California Sen. Kamala Harris on the Democratic ticket hasn’t helped.
“The president does especially well among young blacks — 18-24-year-olds — with 38% to Biden’s 61%. When the names of the vice-presidential nominees are added, the needle hardly moves at all,” he said.
“If Biden’s support from blacks remains this low, that alone could cost the election,” said Zogby’s IntelligenSEER report.