Legislative elections and presidential elections will be held April 17. Approaching the D-Day, the electability of the two presidential candidates Joko Widodo-Ma’ruf Amin and Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno was increasingly thinning, as shown by the Kompas Litbang Survey.
The most recent Kompas Litbang Survey showed that the electability of both partners was only 11.8 %. The fact has surprised many parties. Widodo-Amin is still superior, except that its electability has declined, at 49.2%, while Subianto-Uno 37.4%.
These results are different when compared to the previous Kompas Litbang Survey, October 2018. The differences electability were 19.9% at that time. This significant change in numbers certainly raises speculation, Subianto-Uno’s electability is still very likely to increase near the voting day.
Kompas Litbang Survey was conducted on 2,000 respondents in 34 provinces in Indonesia with a 95% confidence level. The survey was conducted based on the age of the voters, including first time voters, young millennial (22-30), mature millennial (31-40), X genes (41-52), baby boomers (53-71), and silent genes (71+ ). From the results of the survey, Subianto-Uno’s voice increased quite noticeably in the novice voters compared to the results of the previous survey.
Kompas Litbang Survey’s researcher, Bestian Nainggolan, said there were three causes for the increase in the Subianto-Uno electability trend. First, the strengthening of the support of the upper middle class to the opposition. Support from the upper classes which had been obtained by Subianto-Uno from the beginning, proved to be getting stronger. Supporters of Subianto-Uno from those with a higher education background in the previous survey were 38.4%, increasing to 46.1%.
Second, not only from the upper class, support for Subianto-Uno also increased among the lower socio-economic community, from 28.9% to 32.5%. “Even though it is not too massive, the expansion of support for Subianto-Uno is also seen in the category of under-socio-economic respondents,” said Bestian.
Third, Subianto-Uno has loyal and aggressive supporters. They massively provide support and campaign for the couples in various regions, ranging from the smallest communities to large groups. Electability could continue to increase because the cadres and voters of three parties supporting Gerindra, PAN, and PKS are increasingly solidly working together for the victory of candidate number 02.
The increasingly massive support from Subianto-Uno loyalists can also be seen on social media. They massively campaign and share positive information and then are also responsive to poor reporting on their heroes. We could say this is fanaticism, but it’s able to contribute to the acquisition of Subianto-Uno’s voters.
Jokowi-Amin Become Worried?
The incumbent certainly can’t take the results of the survey lightly. Although still superior, it is possible that the Subianto-Uno will catch up. The thin difference does not seem to be a difficult matter for the Subianto-Uno to overtake its rivals and then defeat Widodo-Amin.
There are three main reasons that have caused the Widodo-Amin trend to decline. First, government policy. Based on the survey results, the level of community satisfaction with the government decreased from 72.2% to 58.8%.
Second, there is a change in the map of voters among the older generation, millennial and baby boomers. However, it is not yet known that the change in voters has shifted support to the opposing camp or has become doubtful and has not made a choice. Third, the increase in voters who kept their answers a secret and hesitated, according to Kompas Litbang Survey researchers, also affected the vote acquisition of Widodo-Amin.
Widodo-Amin team seems to have to work hard so as not to be knocked out of the voting next month. Massive supporters of Subianto-Uno in spreading positive content on social media indirectly also influence. This is what has not been done massively by supporters of Widodo-Amin.
In addition, Widodo must be wiser and more careful in making decisions and policies ahead of the presidential election. Inaccurate calculations will be detrimental. Not to mention the unexpected case, such as the arrest of the PPP Chairperson, Romahurmuziy, who was the front guard of Widodo’s victory. Including when Widodo responded to various cases both at home and abroad, which later became the spotlight. If it is not as expected, it might be detrimental.
Loyal supporters and also TKN must work hard to convince potential voters and so that there is no noise in the upcoming elections. Campaign methods especially on social media must be even more massive.
On the contrary, the Subianto-Uno camp does not mean being over the wind. They must also be careful. Miss calculation actions can backfire. They also still have homework to increase electability in some circles. Their homework is to maintain what has been obtained and of course continue to increase support.